Brussels awoke to a pall of fog hanging ominous over the city and obscuring landmarks. It speaks to the general mood as the election that has the whole world on edge at last takes place.
It's unusual that an election in one country can have such an influence overseas. But in the case of the US, the outcome of the Harris-Trump contest is of existential consequence in conflict zones around the world. The lives of people in Ukraine and the Middle East might be turned upside down by the box marked by voters in Arizona or North Carolina.
As the seat of both NATO and the EU, the apprehension in Brussels is palpable. A Harris win brings relative stability and the reassurance of the status quo. Trump on the other hand is an agent of chaos, promising to sever US support for the institutions and agreements that protect the world as we know it.
This would most immediately be a danger in matters of defence. Trump has hammered NATO members who fail to commit 2% of GDP to defence spending. Belgium spends 1.3% and is struggling to pull together a Federal Government as coalition partners disagree on the substance of the socio-economic plans. Whatever the final formation, funds will be constrained.
And the economic prospects look no better with Trump in the White House. Even more than spray tan or golf he loves tariffs and has vowed to put them on all manner of exports – barriers that would weigh heavy on the EU. Already Biden's Inflation Reduction Act was a major economic blow to EU producers that was widely viewed as a trade war. Trump won't even disguise his trade war as an environmental campaign.
Then there's the philosophical dimension: Will the democratic principles that the West holds so dear – and are central to the EU – withstand the abuse that Trump will dish out? Can these systems serve the needs of citizens when debates are so distorted? Can reason shine through the shadows and dispel the doubt that looms over us all?
We'll see tomorrow.
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