Belgium's Coordination Body for Threat Analysis (OCAD) received fewer threat reports potentially linked to terrorism or extremism last year.
In 2024, OCAD recorded 287 threat reports, 13% fewer than the 332 recorded in 2023. Investigation revealed that 213 of these threats were related to extremism or terrorism. These reports came from partner services such as the Public Prosecutor’s Office, the Centre for Cybersecurity or radicalisation officers. 18% of the threat authors were minors.
According to OCAD, a peak during the last quarter of 2023 explains the subsequent decrease in 2024. In October 2023, a terror attack in Brussels targeted Swedish football supporters. OCAD considered this shooting extremely serious and a "trigger event" that could incite extremists to act.
Last year, OCAD did not classify any threat as very severe (level 4). Most reports were classified as low threat (level 1). Just under a third (31%) of the threats were assessed as medium (level 2). About 12% of the threats were considered serious at some point (level 3).
Influence of world events
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains a significant source of tension. "This is particularly evident from the identified targets, with the Jewish community being targeted in 15% of reported cases," says OCAD.
55% of threat reports are linked to Islamic extremism. Threats connected to right-wing extremism (5%) and left-wing extremism (1%) remain limited. For 9% of the reports, OCAD could not determine the ideological dimension. It is often challenging to pinpoint exact motivations, as they arise from a mix of ideological influences, personal grievances and psychological vulnerabilities.
The decrease in the number of reports does not mean that the overall threat level can be lowered. It remains at level 3.
"The number of threat reports is just one parameter among many considered to determine the overall threat level," the centre explains. Other factors include national or international trigger events, geopolitical developments, and incidents at home and abroad.
