A repeat of the war between Israel and Hamas in May 2021 almost erupted again on Friday after clashes in the Al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem but was avoided after a limited Israeli response to rockets launched from the Gaza Strip and Lebanon.
The focal point in the vicious circle of tension and violence was the Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif but the violence spread to multiple scenes – inside Israel, the occupied West Bank, and the borders with Lebanon and Gaza. The violence has a tendency to repeat itself every year during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan after incitement and provocative actions by both sides.
Normally, Muslim worshippers are allowed to stay inside the Al Aqsa Mosque during the night only during the last weeks of Ramadan. This time clashes broke out on Tuesday and Wednesday night inside the mosque between Israeli police and Palestinian militants that had barricaded themselves there with fireworks and stones.
The Palestinians feared that Jewish extremists would try to sacrifice a lamb on the Temple Mount which would have been a clear breach of the status quo on the holy site. The Jewish extremists had already been stopped by the police. The police feared that the Palestinians inside the mosque would use the fireworks and stones against Jewish worshippers at the Wailing Wall on the following day.
The clashes in the mosque resulted in tens of injured Palestinians and hundreds of arrests. The images sent shockwaves in the Muslim world and were described as an “attack” on the mosque. It did not help that the police claimed that they first had tried to convince the militants to leave the mosque peacefully.
In a statement on Wednesday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel is acting to maintain the status quo and calm the situation on the Temple Mount. He did not explicitly condemn the Jewish extremists who are trying to change the status quo with the encouragement of ministers in his own government.
The Temple Mount is managed by an Islamic Foundation (Waqf). It might have prevented the incident but was apparently passive. After that, the situation spiraled out of control with Hamas, the terrorist organisation which is ruling the Gaza Strip since 2006, inciting to more violence and framing its launch of rockets against Israel as a battle for Jerusalem.
War devastating for both sides
The most severe incident took place in the north of Israel which was hit on Thursday by about 35 rockets fired from southern Lebanon, a barrage not seen since the Israel - Lebanon war in 2006. Only few people were injured but the indiscriminate attack could easily have resulted in deadly casualties. It was the first day of Passover when most people were in their homes celebrating the holiday.
“We have learned our lessons from the Lebanon war in 2006,” commented Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Yadlin, a former head of Israel’s military intelligence, on Thursday. “Before responding to the rocket attacks, Israel must first assess who was responsible for the attacks and decide on its strategic goal.”
A response would have to take into consideration the reaction of Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shia Islamist political party and militant group which was suspected of being behind the latest rocket attack. Acting as a proxy for Iran, Hezbollah has built up a formidable arsenal of missiles and its leader Hassan Nasrallah regularly threatens to use it against Israel.
“A war between Hezbollah and Israel would be devastating for both sides,” Amos Yadlin warned. It is a difficult balancing act where the strategic goal is defined as restoring Israel’s military deterrence which has been damaged during the current internal crisis because of the government’s push for a judicial ‘reform’.
The Israeli response on early Friday morning included air strikes against a limited number of targets in both Gaza and southern Lebanon and no casualties were reported. Most targets were located in Gaza. It was not the ‘heavy price’ which the Israeli Prime Minister had threatened to exact in response to the rocket fires against the south and north of Israel.
Measured Israeli response
“No side has an interest in full war,” commented Yoram Schweitzer, an Israeli expert on low intensity conflict and a former consultant on counter-terror strategies. He described Hezbollah as a proxy of Iran with a strong Lebanese identity and a solid basis in Lebanon. In his view, Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas have all been emboldened by the internal crisis in Israel which they perceive as if Israel is collapsing.
Hamas has established a military infrastructure in southern Lebanon and was seen as responsible also for the fire from there. The rockets from Lebanon could hardly have been fired without the knowledge and approval of Hezbollah but Israel tried to avoid a direct confrontation with Hezbollah with unforeseeable consequences.
”It’s clear that Hamas was behind the launch of rockets from Lebanon in coordination with Hezbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard,” Yoram Schweitzer told The Brussels Times. He described the Israeli response as “measured” but warned that that the danger is far from over. The account with Hezbollah is open and Israel might strike again.
Several other countries were reported to have mediated in the conflict to bring about an end to the violence. Schweitzer explained that the decision was taken by the Israeli security cabinet after consultations with the defense and security services, ignoring demands from the far-right extremists in the government for a heavier response.
Statements by the EU
On Wednesday, after the first night of clashes in the Al Aqsa Mosque, the EU spokesperson for foreign affairs said that the EU is closely following the situation and was deeply concerned about the growing tension and violence in the mosque. EU reiterated its call to both sides to exercise the utmost constraint.
EU’s foreign policy chief, High Representative Josep Borrell, issued a statement on Saturday morning, after the immediate risk for war had been reduced and some kind of calm had been restored.
In the statement, the EU condemned the violent incidents in the mosque and reminded that the status quo of all the holy sites must be preserved. The EU also condemned the “indiscriminate rocket attacks on Israel from Gaza and the territory of Lebanon” and the recent terrorist attacks in Tel Aviv and in the West Bank. Israel has the right to defend itself but any response must be "proportionate".
The High Representative urged “all parties to exercise maximum restraint, to avoid further escalation and promote calm for the ongoing religious holidays”. But besides statements, the EU is short of action. Josep Borrell himself admitted in an op-ed in beginning of March in Project Syndicate that the world’s response to the violence has been characterized by too many statements and too little action.
In 2021, the spark that ignited a war was the tension and escalation of violence in East Jerusalem during Ramadan with the Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif as the critical flashpoint. Then a provocative flag march of far-right Israelis in the old city of Jerusalem sparked a 11-days long war between Israel and Hamas. It ended with an unconditional ceasefire, leaving the root causes to the conflict unsolved.
In 2022, during the previous government, war almost erupted again. The route of the flag march was not changed and it was allowed to go ahead in East Jerusalem. A record number of Israelis, including extremists, were also allowed to enter the Temple Mount, waving Israeli flags and conducting prayers, which disrupted the status quo.
M. Apelblat
The Brussels Times
